{
\def\sym#1{\ifmmode^{#1}\else\(^{#1}\)\fi}
\begin{longtable}{l*{8}{c}}
\caption*{Table A18: Full Specification for Table A8, Bought Durables Indicator vs. Year-Ahead Expectations, Mortgagor Sample, GEE Logit estimation}\\
\toprule\endfirsthead\midrule\endhead\midrule\endfoot\endlastfoot
                                             &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(1)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(2)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(3)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(4)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(5)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(6)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(7)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(8)}         \\
\midrule
Inflation Expectation                        &       0.454\sym{**} &       0.554\sym{**} &       0.521\sym{**} &       0.417\sym{*}  &       0.454\sym{**} &       0.546\sym{**} &       0.529\sym{**} &       0.413\sym{**} \\
                                             &     (0.218)         &     (0.228)         &     (0.221)         &     (0.224)         &     (0.218)         &     (0.212)         &     (0.236)         &     (0.206)         \\
Inflation Uncertainty                        &      -0.258         &      -0.252         &      -0.264         &      -0.270         &      -0.258         &      -0.360\sym{*}  &      -0.320\sym{*}  &      -0.253         \\
                                             &     (0.169)         &     (0.168)         &     (0.173)         &     (0.180)         &     (0.169)         &     (0.218)         &     (0.172)         &     (0.174)         \\
Mortgage Balance (Log)                       &       0.701         &       0.796\sym{*}  &       0.699         &       0.733\sym{*}  &       0.701         &       0.739\sym{*}  &       0.665         &       0.842\sym{*}  \\
                                             &     (0.427)         &     (0.429)         &     (0.493)         &     (0.411)         &     (0.427)         &     (0.431)         &     (0.452)         &     (0.431)         \\
Household Income (Log)                       &      -3.349\sym{**} &      -3.000\sym{**} &      -3.721\sym{**} &      -3.256\sym{**} &      -3.349\sym{**} &      -4.001\sym{***}&      -3.076\sym{**} &      -3.672\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (1.394)         &     (1.488)         &     (1.480)         &     (1.346)         &     (1.395)         &     (1.475)         &     (1.357)         &     (1.417)         \\
Monthly Payments (Log)                       &      -1.446\sym{***}&      -1.455\sym{***}&      -1.394\sym{***}&      -1.465\sym{***}&      -1.446\sym{***}&      -1.444\sym{***}&      -1.433\sym{***}&      -1.311\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.337)         &     (0.360)         &     (0.316)         &     (0.346)         &     (0.337)         &     (0.334)         &     (0.337)         &     (0.327)         \\
Expects Interest Rate Increase                              &       0.938\sym{*}  &       0.849         &       0.917\sym{*}  &       0.987\sym{*}  &       0.938\sym{*}  &       0.915         &       0.943\sym{*}  &       0.862\sym{*}  \\
                                             &     (0.546)         &     (0.560)         &     (0.521)         &     (0.558)         &     (0.546)         &     (0.660)         &     (0.539)         &     (0.511)         \\
Expects Interest Rate Decrease                              &      -0.163         &      -0.155         &      -0.328         &      -0.162         &      -0.163         &      -0.070         &      -0.079         &      -0.041         \\
                                             &     (1.286)         &     (1.201)         &     (1.311)         &     (1.327)         &     (1.286)         &     (1.317)         &     (1.240)         &     (1.295)         \\
Real Wage Expectation                        &      -0.062         &      -0.074         &      -0.085         &      -0.070         &      -0.062         &      -0.082         &      -0.060         &      -0.093         \\
                                             &     (0.091)         &     (0.101)         &     (0.096)         &     (0.092)         &     (0.091)         &     (0.090)         &     (0.092)         &     (0.089)         \\
Wage Uncertainty                             &       0.258\sym{**} &       0.278\sym{**} &       0.281\sym{**} &       0.275\sym{**} &       0.258\sym{**} &       0.247\sym{**} &       0.255\sym{**} &       0.342\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.115)         &     (0.123)         &     (0.113)         &     (0.113)         &     (0.115)         &     (0.120)         &     (0.115)         &     (0.126)         \\
Age                                          &       0.024         &       0.017         &       0.034         &       0.021         &       0.024         &       0.056         &       0.015         &       0.018         \\
                                             &     (0.039)         &     (0.045)         &     (0.040)         &     (0.040)         &     (0.039)         &     (0.039)         &     (0.038)         &     (0.036)         \\
Non-White                                  &      -0.148         &      -0.283         &      -0.059         &      -0.193         &      -0.149         &       0.094         &      -0.134         &      -0.199         \\
                                             &     (0.644)         &     (0.847)         &     (0.659)         &     (0.609)         &     (0.645)         &     (0.674)         &     (0.625)         &     (0.648)         \\
Female                                     &       0.340         &       0.443         &       0.189         &       0.234         &       0.340         &       0.209         &       0.213         &       0.356         \\
                                             &     (0.367)         &     (0.426)         &     (0.399)         &     (0.419)         &     (0.368)         &     (0.308)         &     (0.368)         &     (0.375)         \\
Retired                                    &      -0.628         &      -0.544         &      -0.754         &      -0.651         &      -0.628         &      -1.959\sym{**} &      -0.456         &      -0.699         \\
                                             &     (0.741)         &     (0.870)         &     (0.766)         &     (0.721)         &     (0.741)         &     (0.774)         &     (0.708)         &     (0.753)         \\
House Price Expectation                      &       0.003         &      -0.009         &       0.001         &       0.011         &       0.003         &      -0.026         &       0.005         &       0.015         \\
                                             &     (0.036)         &     (0.037)         &     (0.038)         &     (0.039)         &     (0.036)         &     (0.033)         &     (0.035)         &     (0.035)         \\
Expects Unemployment Increase                                  &      -3.137\sym{***}&      -3.295\sym{***}&      -3.190\sym{***}&      -3.393\sym{***}&      -3.136\sym{***}&      -2.929\sym{***}&      -3.149\sym{***}&      -3.179\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.707)         &     (0.737)         &     (0.739)         &     (0.883)         &     (0.707)         &     (0.895)         &     (0.728)         &     (0.731)         \\
Expects Unemployment Decrease                                  &      -1.671\sym{***}&      -1.756\sym{***}&      -1.705\sym{***}&      -1.294\sym{**} &      -1.671\sym{***}&      -1.741\sym{***}&      -1.673\sym{***}&      -1.509\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.457)         &     (0.508)         &     (0.478)         &     (0.613)         &     (0.457)         &     (0.537)         &     (0.462)         &     (0.453)         \\
Mean Inflation Expectation                   &      -0.204         &      -0.116         &       0.011         &      -0.196         &      -0.204         &      -0.115         &      -0.195         &      -0.176         \\
                                             &     (0.265)         &     (0.238)         &     (0.300)         &     (0.269)         &     (0.265)         &     (0.274)         &     (0.263)         &     (0.261)         \\
Mean Inflation Uncertainty                   &       0.672\sym{***}&       0.596\sym{***}&       0.664\sym{**} &       0.665\sym{***}&       0.672\sym{***}&       0.587\sym{**} &       0.716\sym{***}&       0.659\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.217)         &     (0.229)         &     (0.275)         &     (0.218)         &     (0.217)         &     (0.274)         &     (0.212)         &     (0.211)         \\
Mean Log Mortgage Balance                    &      -0.662         &      -0.788         &      -0.681         &      -0.635         &      -0.663         &      -0.652         &      -0.639         &      -0.832\sym{*}  \\
                                             &     (0.473)         &     (0.503)         &     (0.505)         &     (0.459)         &     (0.473)         &     (0.528)         &     (0.488)         &     (0.483)         \\
Mean Log Household Income                    &       4.887\sym{***}&       4.694\sym{***}&       5.184\sym{***}&       4.749\sym{***}&       4.888\sym{***}&       5.510\sym{***}&       4.686\sym{***}&       5.181\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (1.359)         &     (1.440)         &     (1.471)         &     (1.316)         &     (1.359)         &     (1.420)         &     (1.310)         &     (1.375)         \\
Mean Log Monthly Payments                    &       1.598\sym{***}&       1.492\sym{***}&       1.665\sym{***}&       1.642\sym{***}&       1.598\sym{***}&       1.851\sym{***}&       1.505\sym{***}&       1.343\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.488)         &     (0.520)         &     (0.498)         &     (0.530)         &     (0.489)         &     (0.609)         &     (0.501)         &     (0.472)         \\
Mean Expects Interest Rate Increase          &      -0.756         &      -0.881         &      -0.885         &      -0.658         &      -0.755         &      -1.394         &      -0.597         &      -0.850         \\
                                             &     (0.870)         &     (0.841)         &     (0.869)         &     (0.860)         &     (0.870)         &     (0.955)         &     (0.866)         &     (0.837)         \\
Mean Expects Interest Rate Decrease          &       1.170         &       0.815         &       1.686         &       1.496         &       1.171         &       1.461         &       1.089         &       1.116         \\
                                             &     (1.432)         &     (1.390)         &     (1.525)         &     (1.506)         &     (1.432)         &     (1.477)         &     (1.351)         &     (1.382)         \\
Mean Real Wage Expectation                   &       0.120         &       0.136         &       0.147         &       0.124         &       0.120         &       0.222         &       0.106         &       0.150         \\
                                             &     (0.113)         &     (0.124)         &     (0.123)         &     (0.116)         &     (0.113)         &     (0.140)         &     (0.112)         &     (0.114)         \\
Mean Wage Uncertainty                        &      -0.677\sym{***}&      -0.781\sym{***}&      -0.676\sym{***}&      -0.648\sym{***}&      -0.677\sym{***}&      -0.658\sym{***}&      -0.631\sym{***}&      -0.715\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.171)         &     (0.200)         &     (0.171)         &     (0.171)         &     (0.171)         &     (0.188)         &     (0.174)         &     (0.173)         \\
Mean House Price Expectation                 &       0.084         &       0.109\sym{*}  &       0.077         &       0.071         &       0.084         &       0.134\sym{**} &       0.078         &       0.099\sym{**} \\
                                             &     (0.051)         &     (0.062)         &     (0.051)         &     (0.059)         &     (0.051)         &     (0.055)         &     (0.050)         &     (0.050)         \\
Mean Expects Unemployment Increase           &       1.977\sym{**} &       1.812\sym{*}  &       2.205\sym{**} &       2.015\sym{**} &       1.976\sym{**} &       2.609\sym{**} &       1.985\sym{**} &       2.018\sym{**} \\
                                             &     (0.937)         &     (0.945)         &     (1.023)         &     (0.936)         &     (0.937)         &     (1.174)         &     (0.942)         &     (0.904)         \\
Mean Expects Unemployment Decrease           &      -0.814         &      -0.887         &      -0.727         &      -0.931         &      -0.814         &      -1.314         &      -0.531         &      -1.158         \\
                                             &     (0.766)         &     (0.824)         &     (0.793)         &     (0.810)         &     (0.766)         &     (0.946)         &     (0.763)         &     (0.785)         \\
No College                                 &      -1.689\sym{***}&      -1.654\sym{**} &      -1.626\sym{**} &      -1.545\sym{**} &      -1.689\sym{***}&      -2.087\sym{***}&      -1.608\sym{**} &      -1.764\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.634)         &     (0.729)         &     (0.639)         &     (0.703)         &     (0.635)         &     (0.773)         &     (0.643)         &     (0.666)         \\
No College $\times$ Inflation Expectation  &      -0.688\sym{***}&      -0.788\sym{***}&      -0.754\sym{***}&      -0.683\sym{***}&      -0.688\sym{***}&      -0.704\sym{***}&      -0.703\sym{***}&      -0.711\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.158)         &     (0.203)         &     (0.194)         &     (0.152)         &     (0.158)         &     (0.184)         &     (0.156)         &     (0.202)         \\
No College $\times$ Inflation Uncertainty  &       0.564\sym{***}&       0.621\sym{***}&       0.574\sym{**} &       0.556\sym{**} &       0.564\sym{***}&       0.644\sym{**} &       0.469\sym{**} &       0.525\sym{**} \\
                                             &     (0.216)         &     (0.239)         &     (0.242)         &     (0.217)         &     (0.216)         &     (0.273)         &     (0.234)         &     (0.219)         \\
Mean Log Mortgage Balance $\times$ Inflation Expectation&       0.004         &      -0.007         &       0.007         &      -0.005         &       0.004         &      -0.023         &       0.026         &      -0.008         \\
                                             &     (0.086)         &     (0.090)         &     (0.089)         &     (0.083)         &     (0.086)         &     (0.078)         &     (0.087)         &     (0.105)         \\
Mean Log Household Income $\times$ Inflation Expectation&      -0.218         &      -0.116         &      -0.224         &      -0.243         &      -0.218         &      -0.112         &      -0.093         &      -0.173         \\
                                             &     (0.147)         &     (0.161)         &     (0.151)         &     (0.157)         &     (0.147)         &     (0.207)         &     (0.206)         &     (0.139)         \\
Mean Log Monthly Payments $\times$ Inflation Expectation&      -0.123         &      -0.208         &      -0.157         &      -0.108         &      -0.123         &      -0.206         &      -0.185         &      -0.084         \\
                                             &     (0.132)         &     (0.140)         &     (0.129)         &     (0.131)         &     (0.132)         &     (0.140)         &     (0.146)         &     (0.135)         \\
Regional Gas Price Inflation                 &                     &       0.136\sym{**} &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &     (0.063)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
Lagged Inflation Expectation                 &                     &                     &      -0.305\sym{**} &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.135)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Lagged Inflation Expectation&                     &                     &       0.245         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.270)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
Lagged Inflation Uncertainty                 &                     &                     &      -0.013         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.180)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Lagged Inflation Uncertainty&                     &                     &       0.017         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.240)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Expects Unemployment Increase            &                     &                     &                     &       0.466         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &                     &     (1.057)         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Expects Unemployment Decrease            &                     &                     &                     &      -0.845         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &                     &     (0.869)         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
\midrule
Correlated Random Effects                    &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         \\
Chi$^2$                                      &     1531.14         &     4101.52         &     3779.40         &     2901.40         &     1530.50         &     5505.94         &     1639.51         &     2104.48         \\
P Value                                      &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         \\
Sample Size                                  &         671         &         671         &         671         &         671         &         666         &         600         &         665         &         622         \\
\bottomrule \caption*{\normalsize \doublespacing Standard errors in parentheses. \\ \textit{Note:} Each column includes time fixed effects. All means refer to within-subject means. Model (1) is unaltered. Model (2) includes gas price inflation and regional controls. Regional controls are omitted. Model (3) includes the lagged inflation expectation and lagged inflation uncertainty and their interactions with the no college indicator. Model (4) includes the interactions of the unemployment expectations indicators with the no college indicator. Model (5) restricts to the overlap sample between the durables and nondurables samples. Model (6) restricts to households in the durables mortgagor sample with more than 5 observations. Model (7) excludes months with outlier median inflation expectations: June 2010, March 2011, September 2011, February 2012. Model (8) excludes observations from 2009, in which the durable sample's spending patterns were most different from the CES. Robust standard errors are clustered at the level of the individual respondent. \sym{*} \(p<0.10\), \sym{**} \(p<0.05\), \sym{***} \(p<0.01\) }
\end{longtable}
}
